Clause 42.10 of the Amazon Web Services (AWS) terms of service states:

42.10. Acceptable Use; Safety-Critical Systems. Your use of the Lumberyard Materialsmust comply with the AWS Acceptable Use Policy. The Lumberyard Materials are not intended for use with life-critical or safety-critical systems, such as use in operation of medical equipment, automated transportation systems, autonomous vehicles, aircraft or air traffic control, nuclear facilities, manned spacecraft, or military use in connection with live combat. However, this restriction will not apply in the event of the occurrence (certified by the United States Centers for Disease Control or successor body) of a widespread viral infection transmitted via bites or contact with bodily fluids that causes human corpses to reanimate and seek to consume living human flesh, blood, brain or nerve tissue and is likely to result in the fall of organized civilization.

Amazon changed the terms of service. However, the older version from August 2022 can be found in the internet Archive (wayback machine):
web.archive.org/web/20220820040953/https://aws.amazon.com/service-terms/
***
Amazon Lumberyard is a now-superseded freeware cross-platform game engine developed by Amazon and based on CryEngine (initially released in 2002), which was licensed from Crytek in 2015. In July 2021, Amazon and the Linux Foundation announced that parts of the engine would be used to create a new open source game engine called Open 3D Engine, which would replace it. A new Open 3D Foundation, run by the Linux Foundation, will manage the new engine, which will be licensed under the open source Apache 2.0 license. The new engine is reportedly partially based on Lumberyard but with many parts rewritten, and is considered a new engine. The Lumberyard engine features integration with Amazon Web Services to allow developers to build or host their games on Amazon’s servers, as well as support for livestreaming via Twitch. Additionally, the engine includes Twitch ChatPlay, allowing viewers of the Twitch stream to influence the game through the associated chat, a method of play inspired by the Twitch Plays Pokémon phenomenon. The source code is available to end users with limitations: Users may not publicly release the Lumberyard engine source code or use it to release their own game engine. Lumberyard launched on February 9, 2016 alongside GameLift, a fee-based managed service for deploying and hosting multiplayer games, intended to allow developers the easy development of games that attract “large and vibrant communities of fans.”[14] As of March 2018, the software is currently in beta status and can be used to build games for Microsoft Windows, PlayStation 4, and Xbox One, with limited support for iOS and Android and support for macOS being planned for future releases. Virtual reality integration was added in Beta 1.3, allowing developers to build games supporting devices like Oculus Rift and HTC Vive.Despite being based on the architecture of Crytek’s CryEngine, the engine has been developed to use many of its own custom-developed systems, some of which are in a preview mode. A few of these systems include the Component Entity System, Fur Shader, Modular Gems (which allows developers to either create their own assets or add existing assets to their games), and the Script Canvas.

Further References

A two-day bioterrorism exercise, code-named “Dark Winter”, was held at Andrews Air Force Base, Washington D.C., June 22-23, 2001. Developed and produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, and ANSER Institute for Homeland Security. Sponsorship was provided by the McCormick Tribune Foundation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT).

“Dark Winter” is a role-playing exercise based on a fictional bioterrorist attack on the U.S. Former senior government officials play the roles of National Security Council (NSC) members, with former Senator Sam Nunn as the U.S. President, former Central Intelligence Agency director R. James Woolsey as the head of CIA, Jerry Hauer as FEMA director, and Dr. Margaret Hamburg as Secretary of Health & Human Services. Medical experts included Dr. Tara O’Toole of Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies.

This is a fictional scenario. The background to the story goes like this: six months earlier, the U.S. lifted sanctions against Iraq and ceased enforcement of the “no-fly zones.” Since then, Saddam Hussein has aggressively worked to strengthen his military forces, including imports of equipment and material that could be used to produce chemical and biological weapons. Several top scientists from the former Soviet bioweapons program have been recruited to Iraq. Al Daura, a vaccine plant outside Baghdad, closed by U.N. inspectors after the Gulf War, is now back in full production. Officially it manufactures vaccines against Foot & Mouth disease, but western intelligence sources suspect that it’s actually weaponizing germs for warfare.

In the scenario, Iraq has recently moved large military forces into offensive positions near the Kuwaiti border, officially as a part of a routine military exercise. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have asked for American, British and France military forces to defend the area against a possible attack. Russia and China oppose Allied troops.

The role-playing begins: as the U.S. National Security Council discusses the Iraq-Kuwait situation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports one confirmed and twenty suspected cases of smallpox in Oklahoma City. Presumably, this is a bioterrorism attack, with the virus deliberately introduced.

Emergency rooms in Oklahoma City soon become extremely crowded, while many hospital staff don’t show up for work the day after the first case is reported on CNN. The Governor of Oklahoma requests that each and every one of the 3.5 million citizens of the state receive the smallpox vaccine within the next 72 hours. The Oklahoma National Guard is put on alert. The Governor declares a state of emergency, and requests that the President invoke the Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act. (The Stafford Act provides extra assistance to state and local authorities in catastrophic disasters, and also allows the national government broader powers to respond to the crisis, such as the use of active-duty soldiers.)

The exercise outlines a fictional scenario where Iraq has launched a covert bioterrorism attack with smallpox against shopping malls in three U.S. states — Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Nine days after the presumed exposure there are 20 lab-confirmed and 14 suspected cases in Oklahoma City, 9 suspected cases in Georgia and 7 in Pennsylvania.

For the purposes of this exercise, the U.S. stock of smallpox vaccine is estimated at 12 million doses. (In reality, the U.S. had stockpiled 15.4 million doses, and recently it was discovered that more than half of the doses had been destroyed, or were of questionable quality. Experts estimate that less than 7 million people could be vaccinated as of 2001.)

In the exercise, the total world supply is estimated at 60 million doses, with half in South Africa. There are concerns that some non-U.S. vaccine may be ineffective, and may also have a higher rate of side effects.

Initially 100,000 doses of vaccine are released for Oklahoma, with the same amounts prepared to be sent to Pennsylvania and Georgia, pending lab confirmation of suspected cases in those states. Because of the limited vaccine stock, the decision is made to minimize the use of vaccine. The only civilians to be vaccinated are close contacts, healthcare personnel and investigators in case states. 2.5 million doses are reserved for the military and the National Guard.

At the early stages of the outbreak smallpox patients and suspected cases are isolated at hospitals and quarantine centers, but quarantine is not forcibly imposed. With the numbers of cases rising, some states have attempted to keep smallpox patients and contacts in their homes, but it is difficult to supply food and supportive care to those affected. The Department of Justice has received credible claims that individuals with symptoms similar to smallpox have been illegally arrested or locked up in designated “isolation wards.” Some otherwise healthy people have been placed in quarantine units without vaccination — together with people who have the disease.

As the scenario progresses, two weeks after the presumed attack there are 2000 cases in 15 states, with 300 deaths. A total of three million doses of smallpox vaccine have been sent to Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Shipments of 500,000 doses delivered to each of 12 affected states. Five days after the first case was diagnosed only 1.25 million doses of vaccine remain.

TV stations show footage of a mother in tears, pleading for vaccine, while being pushed back by riot police. The National Guard has been called in to suppress violence at vaccination clinics, where angry crowds demand vaccination. Educational institutions, sporting events and other public gatherings have been closed. Some states have closed transportation links, including airports. The Governor of Texas has decided to use his emergency powers to order Texas National Guard Units to assist the State Police in suspending individuals from Oklahoma trying to enter Texas without proof of recent smallpox vaccination. Many countries have closed their borders to unvaccinated travelers from the U.S. The economical impact might result in billions of dollars in international trade losses. Food shortages are reported from some cities. Dangerous misinformation and rumors are spread on the Internet and in other mass media.

A National Security Council committee of medical and public health experts make recommendations on disease containment, including:

• “mandatory isolation of all smallpox victims in hospitals or preferably dedicated facilities”
• support from the Department of Defense to run “dedicated smallpox treatment centers”
• voluntary home isolation of people who have been in contact with smallpox cases, with DoD and National Guard staff to provide food and medical monitoring.
• federal travel restrictions
• cancellation all public gatherings in states with smallpox cases

By day six of the crisis, vaccine supplies are dwindling. An additional supply, from the United Kingdom (500,000 doses) and Russia (4 million doses), last for only a couple of days. The NSC develops a plan to use private pharmaceutical facilities in the U.S. to produce about 12 million doses of an unlicensed smallpox vaccine per month. But first delivery would be 5 weeks from the current time.

Near the end of the role-playing exercise, about three weeks after the fictional bioterrorism attack, a second generation of cases begins to appear. During the past 48 hours, the number of cases has skyrocketed with 14,000 new smallpox patients confirmed in 25 states, among them the large population centers of New York, California and Florida.

Smallpox is an extremely contagious disease. A single case can infect 10 to 20 others, and this can go on for generation after generation (or wave after wave), with a rapidly increasing number of infections at each step. The second generation, outlined in this exercise, would be followed by a third, a fourth and so on.

The exercise closes with a simulated projection of generations 3 and 4. The participants project 30,000 new cases and 10,000 deaths at the end of generation 2, followed by 300,000 cases two and a half weeks later (end of generation 3), and 3 million cases, with 1 million deaths, an the end of generation 4.

With a vaccine supply enough to immunize less than 5 percent of the population, the infection rate would continue to increase tenfold every two to three weeks, according to medical experts. Continuing this grim calculation, that would mean 30 million cases, with 10 million deaths in the fifth wave. And then, two to three weeks later, a final wave sweeping the nation and killing off nearly one out of every three Americans.

Lessons From “Dark Winter”

The “Dark Winter” role-playing exercise brought to light major weaknesses in the U.S. health care system:

• U.S. doctors and nurses have no smallpox experience
• no rapid diagnosis of the disease
• no treatment available for those infected
• a lack of protective clothing, masks, gloves, and gowns
• isolation rooms at hospitals for highly contagious smallpox patients is in short supply
• no surge capacity; lack of staff and hospital beds
• the public health system and hospitals get overwhelmed by the enormous increase in patient demand
• insufficient supply of smallpox vaccine

The exercise also exposed many serious weaknesses in U.S. bioterrorism preparedness. The most serious weakness is probably the insufficient supply of smallpox vaccine. Without a much larger supply of vaccine, the contagion would continue to run its course, until there are no more victims to be found.

“If there is only one dose of smallpox vaccine for every 23 Americans, whom do you vaccinate?” asked former senator Sam Nunn (D) in a testimony before the House Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs and International Relations.

Frank Keating, the governor of Oklahoma, who played himself in the exercise, said “Vaccination cannot stop the spread if you don’t have enough of it.”

The drill also raises questions about civil liberties in a time of bioterrorism crisis. “Do you seize hotels and convert them to hospitals?,” asked Nunn. “Do you close borders and block all travel? What level of force do you use to keep someone sick with smallpox in isolation?”

Another important lesson, echoed by multiple other exercises and studies, is that state and local public health agencies don’t have the necessary resources to handle a bioterrorism attack.

“We have a fragmented and underfunded public health system — at the local, state and federal level — that does not allow us to effectively detect and track disease outbreaks in real time,” said Keating.

When it comes to a bioterrorist attack, too much focus has been placed on the military and too little on the public health side, said Tara O’Toole, deputy director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, who portrayed a top federal health official in the exercise.

The CDC has a budget of only $40 million each year to help modernize local public health agencies with bioterrorism training, updated labs and surveillance systems. And while last year Congress backed an increase to $500 million per year, the money has not been approved, said O’Toole.

The simulation also exposed “fault lines” and “disconnects” between local, state and federal officials, raising serious questions about who would spearhead activities in the event of an attack.

“Our Lack of Preparation is a Real Emergency”

“Dark Winter showed just how unprepared we are to deal with bioterrorism,” said Jerome M. Hauer, the former head of emergency management in New York City and now a bioterrorism consultant to Tommy G. Thompson, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. “It pointed out that there were significant challenges to all levels of government.”

“I was honored to play the part of the President in the exercise Dark Winter”, said Sam Nunn in his House Committee testimony.

“You often don’t know what you don’t know until you’ve been tested. And it’s a lucky thing for the United States that — as the emergency broadcast network used to say: ‘this is just a test, this is not a real emergency.’ But Mr. Chairman, our lack of preparation is a real emergency.”

Source: wearcam.org/decon/dark_winter_scen_smallpox.htm

“A well-wrapped statistic is better than Hitler’s “big lie” it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you.”

~ Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics

Data dredging (also known as data snooping or p-hacking)^[1][a] is the misuse of data analysis to find patterns in data that can be presented as statistically significant, thus dramatically increasing and understating the risk of false positives. This is done by performing many statistical tests on the data and only reporting those that come back with significant results.^[2]

The process of data dredging involves testing multiple hypotheses using a single data set by exhaustively searching—perhaps for combinations of variables that might show a correlation, and perhaps for groups of cases or observations that show differences in their mean or in their breakdown by some other variable.